2011-2012 NHL Predictions – Western Conference

Posted on September 8, 2011

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Well, here are my thoughts on how things are going to shake out by the end of this NHL season in the Western Conference. The top five teams in my rankings are a lock for a playoff position. After that arguements could be made one way or the other I am sure. I’ve made my picks but realistically from the St. Louis Blues down to the Minnesota Wild, any of those teams could get in. One might even make an argument in favour of the Phoenix Coyotes having a chance at getting in. However, I have picked them as my largest point drop year over year, but more on that later.
Overall Standings

Western Conference
(last years record) – (keys to success)
  1. Vancouver Canucks - (1st with 117 points) – (Regroup after Game 7 Stanley Cup Final loss.)
  2. Detroit Red Wings - (3rd with 104 points) – (Experience and skill versus age.)
  3. Los Angeles Kings - (7th with 98 points) – (Depth scoring, defense continues to improve.)
  4. Chicago Blackhawks - (8th with 97 points) – (Bottom 6 forwards can’t cost them games.)
  5. San Jose Sharks - (2nd with 105 points) – (Chemistry shake up produces results.)
  6. St. Louis Blues - (11th with 87 points) – (Veterans and youth create a fine balance, Halak shines.)
  7. Anaheim Ducks - (4th with 99 points) – (Healthy Hiller. Scoring depth past Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan.)
  8. Calgary Flames - (10th with 94 points) – (A number of under achievers return to form this season.)
  9. Nashville Predators - (5th with 99 points) – (Rinne and Weber, but need to find some offense.)
  10. Columbus Blue Jackets - (13th with 81 points) – (Better top six this season, but need S. Mason to find his game.)
  11. Minnesota Wild - (12th with 86 points) – (Having scoring on top two lines will keep them in the hunt.)
  12. Dallas Stars - (9th with 95 points) – (Find the missing offense from loss of B. Richards and J. Neal.)
  13. Phoenix Coyotes - (6th with 99 points) – (Overcome loss of Bryzgalov and buy into coach’s system.)
  14. Edmonton Oilers - (15th with 62 points) – (Veterans stay healthy and balance the youth movement.)
  15. Colorado Avalanche - (14th with 68 points) – (Goalies need to shine, find secondary scoring.)

The Standings by Division

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. Detroit Red Wings - It seems like every year people say the Red Wings are too old and they will start dropping down the standings. However, for one of the best managed franchises in the NHL, they always find a way to balance age, youth, home grown talent and free agent signings to produce a competitive legitimate Stanley Cup contender. This season is no exception. There is talk that rookie Tomas Tatar is ready to take the next step and crack this line up. He won’t be the difference maker, but the experienced, deep, well coached roster will be. That and Jimmy Howard. It is my opinion that Howard is a significantly underestimated goalie and it will likely be that way his whole career. I am reminded of Chris Osgood, not a lot of people felt he was an elite goalie but all he did was win, granted on a good team, but he got the job done and so will Howard. A few other names that will once again have Detroit at the top of their division and near the top of the Western Conference: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterburg, Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom, and depth forwards Patrick Eaves, Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader. Datsyuk will likely challenge for the Selke trophy again and Lidstrom will be in discussions for the Norris.
  2. Chicago Blackhawks - Stanley Cup winners in 2009-2010, this team still has a lot of skill and showed the ability to not back down by forcing the Vancouver Canucks to game 7 in the first round of last years playoffs. Down 3 games to none, they battled back, only to lose in overtime in game 7. They have a strong top group of forwards. If they get production out of former Florida Panthers Michael Frolik and Rostislav Olesz, the offensive depth will produce results. Most importantly for the Blackhawks to be successful they need strong performances from their 4th to 6th defensemen and will need Cory Crawford to have a strong follow up to his rookie season. However, it is hard to look at the group of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook and not believe the playoffs are in the picture. I think that the overall depth of the Detroit Red Wings will lead to a second place finish in this division for Chicago.
  3. St. Louis Blues - I really like the Blues this season. I think they have the pieces in place to move to the next level. They have been a competitive team the last three seasons. Chris Stewart, David Backes, TJ Oshie, Patrick Berglund and the additions of veterans Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner. Not to mention Andy MacDonald and Alexander Steen. The backend is strong but generally unproven. Alex Pietrangelo will improve on last seasons totals. The group is strong enough that if Jaroslav Halak can provide solid goaltending, they will lock down a playoff spot, despite playing in one of the toughest divisions this season.
  4. Nashville Predators - The strength of this team has been its work ethic. Barry Trotz coaches them extremely well and always seems to get more out of the group of the players than expected. This year will be no exception, especially when it comes to offensive numbers. Scoring enough goals to win games will be the Predator’s greatest challenge. Thankfully, they have a strong young defense led by Shea Weber and they have standout goaltender Pekka Rinne. The Predators will need breakout performances by Colin Wilson and Blake Geoffrion to be in the mix this year. Great coaching and a strong work ethic will keep the Predators in the mix most of the year, but the lack of offensive power will catch up to them this season and they will fall just short of the playoffs.
  5. Columbus Blue Jackets - What effect will the big additions of Jeff Carter and Jeff Wizniewski have on the teams season? It is a positive that Columbus is spending some money on salaries. Wizniewski should bolster the powerplay in Columbus. They have traded for Carter who can take on the role of a number one centre, which has been lacking in Columbus for years. Will Carter and Rick Nash have the chemistry needed to put up big numbers?  The big question mark for me is the goaltending. Steve Mason has struggled the last two seasons after an outstanding rookie season. Perhaps this is primarily due to the struggling team in front of him. Matt Calvert is a good young player and Ryan Johansen is a great prospect. Kristian Huselius missed most of last season and is still recovering from surgery and is months away from returning to the line up. I still question the overall depth of this team. While they look more improved, I think they will be out worked by the Nashville Predators and sink to the bottom of a very competitive division.

Northwest Division

  1. Vancouver Canucks - Well that was disappointing for Canuck fans. One win away from winning the Stanley Cup. Now the team has to regroup and find a way to get back to the finals and finish the task. A very difficult thing to do. That being said, when one looks at the regular season the Canucks will again be one of the best teams in the Conference and will win this division, perhaps even walk away with it. The one-two punch of Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider gives them a great goaltending tandem, regardless of how one feels about Luongo’s ability to close out big games. Though it may be interesting to watch and see if a goalie controversy develops. The defense of the Canucks is one of the better ones in the league despite losing Christian Ehrhoff to the Buffalo Sabres during free agency. Arguably they have nine defenseman that could play in the league this season. They will likely hope for Keith Ballard to have a bounce back year and hope Dan Hamhuis has recovered from an injury he suffered in the Finals. They also have Kevin Bieksa and Sami Solo. This group is supported by Andrew Alberts, Chris Tanev, Aaron Rome and Ryan Parent. Up front they have the main familiar weapons returning, though Ryan Kesler won’t likely be back from surgery recovery until November. Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mason Raymond and Alexander Burrows are followed up by recently signed Marco Sturm, Manny Maholtra and Mikael Samuelsson. With Kesler’s injury there is a good chance that Cody Hodgson could get a sustained look. The Canucks also have a number of players on Professional Tryouts including Owen Nolan. This group will separate themselves from the rest of their division and will win their Conference, perhaps even the President’s Trophy again.
  2. Calgary Flames - The Flames had a strong second half last season and have tweaked their line up for this season but did not choose to burn it all down and rebuild like some fans were calling for. The team does have the potential to get back into the playoffs this season but part of what is needed for that to happen is the underachievers need to achieve and the inconsistent need to be consistent. You know that Jarome Iginla will have yet another solid season with Alex Tanguay on his line. Mikka Kipprusoff has come under fire as not living up to the billing as an elite goalie. I think he is still coming through when needed. He puts in solid performances that a consistent team could take advantage of and string some wins together. Michael Backlund needs to climb to the next level and ideally situate himself as the primary number one centre between Tanguay and Iginla. Rene Bourque and Curtis Glencross need to be consistent game in and game out. Too many big games followed by stints of invisibility. You could include recently acquired Lee Stempniak in this group. The Flames gave up consistency in Daymond Langkow for a bit of a wild card in Stempniak. The under achieving group of forwards include Matt Stajan and Niclas Hagman. These two former Leafs need to put up better numbers this season. On defense the Flames traded away Robyn Regehr to the Buffalo Sabres, yet they still have a solid group of defenders. Jay Bouwmeester is another oft criticized Flame that needs to have a great season to win over the fans. Mark Giordano had a great year last season and will need to have another. I expect Anton Babchuk to surprise people this year with the amount of upside he will bring. Scott Hannan was signed as a free agent and will help replace some of the grit and defensive skill lost in Regehr. The group is rounded out by Cory Sarich and Chris Butler. There is enough depth on this team that if players can produce their usual numbers, not even career years, the Flames will be back in the playoff picture.
  3. Minnesota Wild - The Wild are going to be a physical team to play against this season and perhaps more dangerous offensively. Hard working forward Darroll Powe was added to the mix with big hitter Cal Clutterbuck already on board. The additions of Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi could add much needed offense to the Wild. If Heatley finds chemistry with talented forward Mikko Koivu and Setoguchi finds a home on the second line, the Wild might be able to have a solid group of top six forwards. They did give up talented defenseman Brent Burns to the San Jose Sharks and it is the defense of the Wild that may let them down this year. They may either need to stifle their newly acquired offensive weapons and play a strong team defensive system or let them go on the attack and hope their defense and goaltending hold up. I don’t think either choice will work adequately. Niklas Backstrom continues to play well on an average team, but he will not get the support he needs this season. I would stay away from him in fantasy leagues.
  4. Edmonton Oilers - The Oilers forwards have a mix of youth and verteran players. Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson will be a dangerous group up front. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is likely, or at least should be, a year away from playing in the NHL. It is not the group of forwards that will be the area of worry this season, defense and goaltending are still questionable in my opinion. Their goaltending is not good enough to overcome the inevitable defensive lapses that will happen this season. Devan Dubnyk has a good chance at playing a lot more this season. Nicolai Khabibulin will be coming off jail time for a DUI and attending training camp but will he be in shape and ready to play? He has had two season with a GAA over 3.00. The defensive group under contract does not bowl me over with confidence either. Tom Gilbert, Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid and Cam Barker as a likely top four. Plus Theo Peckham and Andy Sutton. The Oilers will have to score a lot of goals to win games this year and like last year they will not win very many.
  5. Colorado Avalanche - The Avalanche are taking a chance in the crease this season with the addition of Semyon Varlamov and JS Giguere. Both goalies have struggled to stay healthy the last few seasons. I think more Washington Capital fans will be watching the Avalanche than Avalanche fans this season. The Capitals get the Avalanche’s 2012 first round draft pick in exchange for Varlamov. I know, it is crazy. There is a distinct possibility that the Avalanche could finish last this season or at least give the Capitals a good chance at the lottery pick. Will Matt Dumba or Nail Yakupov end up being a Capital? If so the Varlamov trade goes from bad to horrible for the Avalanche. Last years trade of Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk to St. Louis for Erik Johnson and Jay McClement is also questionable. Enough about the negatives. The Avalanche have great talent in Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene and recently drafted Gabriel Landeskog. A lot of things will have to come together for Colorado to have a respectable season and it won’t. They have reasonable depth up front but they are another team that has a questionable group of defense and question marks in net. Congratulation Washington fans on your 2012 high first round draft pick.
Pacific Division
  1. Los Angeles Kings - I believe this team is ready to take the next step this season and will win this division. The one-two punch in net with Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier is one of the best in the league. They did give up future star Brayden Schenn and gritty winger Wayne Simmonds, but they acquired one of the best two way forwards in the league in Mike Richards and he will be a great second line centre behind Anze Kopitar. Their secondary scoring should come from the likes of Simon Gagne, Dustin Brown, Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams and if he arrives in shape, Dustin Penner. They also have some youngsters that are on the verge of making a difference: Trevor Lewis, Andrei Loktionov and former Calgary Hitmen Brandon Kozun. As of now the Kings still need to sign RFA defenseman Drew Doughty. It is hard to picture this not happening at some point during training camp. Combined with fellow defensemen: Jack Johnson, Rob Scuderi, Willie Mitchell and Matt Greene, it gives LA a solid group of defenders.
  2. San Jose Sharks - After a number of years of regular season success and playoff disappointment, there were some big changes made in San Jose this offseason. Trading Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi to Minnesota and acquiring James Sheppard, Martin Havlat and Brent Burns. They also added Michael Handzus from the LA Kings. This gives San Jose a deep roster and the skill to challenge for the division title. Strong play by Antti Niemi will be needed to win the divison, but there will be very little separating the Sharks from the Kings at the end of the season. If things come together for the Sharks, they could win the division and also challenge for the conference crown. However, I think ownership, players and fans are more interested in getting to the Stanley Cup Finals. I am certain the Sharks feel they should have beaten the Canucks last year and will be out to prove that.
  3. Anaheim Ducks - The debate about the Ducks being a playoff team or not seems to stem from: What do they have beyond Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan. Well, last year they got a great year from Teemu Selanne (who has not confirmed returning yet), and decent years from Jason Blake and Saku Koivu. Will these three older players still provide enough depth and secondary scoring? Is Jonas Hiller healthy and ready to have an all star performance again? Dan Ellis is a capable back up, but has not proven he can take the starting job. He couldn’t in Nashville or Tampa and lost it last year when Hiller was out of the lineup to Ray Emery. I am looking at Andrew Cogliano, Brandon McMillan and Matt Belesky as players that will need to contribute offensively this season. The Ducks defense is strong. Cam Fowler will continue to improve, as will Luca Sbisa. The veteran prescence and variety of skills possessed by Lubomir Visnovsky, Toni Lydman, and Francois Beauchemin forms a strong group of defenders. There will be six teams battling for three playoff spots and the Ducks will be one of them.
  4. Dallas Stars - I think there will be more empty seats watching the Stars play this season, as the Stars will continue to struggle. They lost Brad Richards to free agency and last season traded James Neal to the Penguins for defenseman Alex Goligoski. They did make some interesting additions with Michael Ryder and Radek Dvorak up front. They added to their defense former Calgary Flame Adam Pardy and are enabling Sheldon Souray to return to the NHL after being a salary cap casualty in Edmonton. These moves are interesting but by no means do they strike me as moves that will push the team up the standings. I expect a breakout year by Jamie Benn. Kari Lehtonen stayed healthy and played 69 games last year. He will need to do more of the same this season. Ultimately, it is the drop off in depth in the bottom half of their roster that leads me to believe they will be overpowered more often than not this season. I also wonder to what extent Richards raised the game of the players around him.
  5. Phoenix Coyotes - We will ultimately find out just how important Ilya Bryzgalov was to the success of this team. Dave Tippet’s coaching has quite often been referenced in discussions regarding the success of this team, but does he have enough to work with this season? Shane Doan led the team in scoring with 60 points last season, not exactly a top heavy offensive group. They will be minus Eric Belanger, Lee Stempniak, and Scottie Upshall  a total of 105 points on a low scoring team. They also still need to come to terms with forward Kyle Turris. They added veteran Daymond Langkow who missed the majority of last season due to a neck injury. Even if he gets back to the form he was his previous two full seasons, I would not expect more than 50 points. This also means that the top offensive forwards are Doan, Langkow and Ray Whitney, two 34 year olds and a 39 year old. Next up is Radim Vrbata at a youthful 30. Keith Yandle has put together three solid offensive seasons in a row, improving on the year before. In fact, there might be a good chance that he leads his team in points this year, he had 59 points last season. Replacing Bryzgalov in net will be Mike Smith, who has yet to really take hold of a team and be the number one they were hoping for.

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